The GTA market has held a broadly balanced footing this spring, but the balance is starting to tip toward sellers at the margin. Sales are climbing, new listings have pulled back sharply from a year ago, and while prices are still down year-over-year, they firmed again month-to-month in May.
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The clearest story in the data is the fault line between strong submarkets (detached freeholds in established neighbourhoods) and weaker ones (condo apartments, especially investor-held downtown units).
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The numbers, as of May 2026:

• Average sale price: $1,069,700, down 4.6% year-over-year but up 1.7% from April

• 6,583 homes sold in May, up 6.3% from May 2025

• 17,698 new listings entered the MLS in May, down 18.9% year-over-year

• 26,927 active listings across the GTA, working out to roughly 4.8 months of inventory (balanced-market territory)

• The MLS HPI benchmark, which controls for property mix, sits at $943,500, down 6.7% year-over-year

• Homes sold for roughly 98% of asking price on average, down from the bidding-war years but still solid

• Average time on market: 27 days, up from 25 a year ago

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Peel, Halton, and our patch specifically:
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Our service area is running slightly softer than the GTA-wide averages, which is normal for the western corridor in a balanced market. Mississauga sold 568 homes in May at an average of $971,047, with about a 31-day average time on market and a 97% sale-to-list ratio. Halton Region (Burlington, Oakville, Milton, Halton Hills) sold 816 at an average of $1,248,277, with a 30-day average time on market and a 96% sale-to-list ratio.
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Within Halton, Burlington remains the tightest submarket at roughly 3.9 months of inventory, edging into seller's-market territory.
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The practical implication: in our markets, properly priced listings are still moving in a reasonable window, but the days of running a deliberate offer date and clearing five over-asking bids are largely gone outside specific niches.
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Sellers who set the list price within the defensible range have the leverage. Sellers who reach above it end up walking the price back to the same range a few weeks later, with extra days on market and a thinner buyer pool by the time they get there. What has changed since the winter is the direction of travel: with new listings down nearly 19% year-over-year and sales rising, the inventory overhang that gave buyers the upper hand is being absorbed, and TRREB expects selling prices to level off and eventually firm if that continues.
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How this is showing up by property type:
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Detached freeholds are the strongest segment. May detached sales came in at 3,236, with an average price of $1,358,131 (down about 4% year-over-year, the smallest decline of any major segment). Move-in-ready homes in established neighbourhoods, particularly in the $900K to $1.3M range, are getting the most consistent buyer activity and the shortest days on market. If you own one and you've kept it in good condition, this is a workable market.
Condo apartments are the softest major segment. 1,535 apartments sold in May at an average of $639,468, with prices still down year-over-year even as freehold values stabilize. Standing inventory in larger downtown buildings remains high, and investor-owned units in particular are sitting longer. Sellers in this segment have to be especially deliberate about pricing, presentation, and timing. The same unit listed correctly versus optimistically will see materially different outcomes.
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Mortgage rates have eased meaningfully. The Bank of Canada overnight rate is at 2.3% and the prime rate at 4.5%. Five-year fixed mortgages are running around 6.09% and one-year rates around 5.49%, well below where they were 18 months ago. For sellers, the relevant point is that the qualified buyer pool is larger than it was a year ago, even with prices off their peak. Buyers who couldn't get a mortgage approval in 2024 are coming back into the market now.
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What this means if you're listing right now:
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The market still rewards realistic pricing and punishes optimism, but the backdrop is improving for sellers. Properly priced freeholds in our submarkets are selling close to list within four to five weeks. Overpriced listings still sell eventually, but at a discount and after a stretch of days on market that erodes the negotiating position. New listings are running well below last year's pace, which is thinning the competitive set even as spring inventory turns over.
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Our honest read for most sellers: if you have a freehold in a desirable submarket and you're willing to price within the defensible range, this is a reasonable window, and the supply picture is moving in your favour. If you have a condo apartment, particularly in a larger building with elevated standing inventory, the math is harder and pricing strategy matters more. We can't tell you what the market will look like in six months. We can tell you what comparable properties to yours actually sold for last week, and what they were listed at to get there.